"People like to describe it as sitting on top of a bowl of Jell-O. For each simulation, they randomly changed three variables: the location of the earthquake's starting point at ground level, known as the epicenter; how far inland the earthquake ruptured (i.e., how close it got to major inland cities, such as Seattle and Portland, Oregon); and the location of strong patches, or places that are known to produce especially strong ground shaking. NY 10036. Stay up to date on the coronavirus outbreak by signing up to our newsletter today. Earthquake experts say current building codes don’t reflect the Seattle area’s riskiest features — but the outlook could improve if the Really Big One can wait. If the epicenter is located just beneath the tip of northwest Washington, its seismic waves would radiate away from the Emerald City. If a magnitude 9.0 earthquake were to hit the Pacific Northwest, People in Seattle would fare much better if the epicenter struck beneath the tip of northwest Washington. The simulations don't paint a pretty picture for Seattle or the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, British Columbia and Northern California, but the locations of some epicenters were a bit more forgiving than others. Hypocenter depth recalculated from 25.2 to 29.1 km (from 15.7 to 18.1 mi). "The reason is because [at this epicenter] the rupture is propagating away from Seattle, so it's most affecting sites offshore," Wirth said in the statement. "We varied it randomly in our simulations.". It would be worse for Seattle if the epicenter of a magnitude 9.0 earthquake hit offshore but sent seismic waves inland, as this simulation shows. ABCNews.com You can imagine if you shake a plate that has some Jell-O on it, the Jell-O will shake much more [than the plate] because it's so weak.". The peak ground velocity describes the maximum speed at which the ground moves during an earthquake and typically correlates well with felt shaking intensity — and damage — during large earthquakes. according to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, according to the Washington State Department of Natural Resources, Image Gallery: This Millennium's Destructive Earthquakes. Simulated peak ground velocities from a magnitude-9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone highlight differences in the effect of such an earthquake throughout the Puget Sound region. "People have done simulations like this in the past, but they only did one or two," said study lead researcher Erin Wirth, who did the project while a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Earth and Space Sciences at the University of Washington. That's the best we can do.". Please refresh the page and try again. 5 Nov 12:44: Magnitude recalculated from 3.1 to 2.6. What happens if a president loses an election but won't leave the White House? Visit our corporate site. Woman sheds coronavirus for 70 days without symptoms. There was a problem. ), "We know that Cascadia is capable of having large megathrust earthquakes up to about magnitude 9," said Wirth, who is now a research geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). "The last one occurred in the year 1700. Receive news and offers from our other brands? Please deactivate your ad blocker in order to see our subscription offer. [Image Gallery: This Millennium's Destructive Earthquakes]. What was the largest empire in the world? To investigate the effects of a 9.0-magnitude earthquake, Wirth and her colleagues ran virtual simulations on supercomputers. New York, 5 Nov 15:50: Hypocenter depth recalculated from 29.1 to … Engineers at the University of Washington are now looking at these results and figuring out how the buildings in Seattle would weather the shaking predicted in the simulations, Wirth said. A magnitude 4.6 earthquake shook Seattle and the Puget Sound region at 2:51 a.m. Friday, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), rattling some people (and dogs) out of … Live Science is part of Future US Inc, an international media group and leading digital publisher. Epicenter location corrected by 3.4 km (2.1 mi) towards ESE. (Image credit: Erin Wirth) Receive mail from us on behalf of our trusted partners or sponsors? Obviously, we didn't have any seismometers to record the shaking then, so we really don't know what it looked like in terms of the intensity of ground shaking.". The Jell-O-like Seattle basin could have a long-lasting earthquake, the researchers found. Over the course of the 50 simulations, "we always saw the strongest shaking along the coast, since they are closest to the offshore fault," Wirth told Live Science. "Have your earthquake kit and know what you would do in an earthquake. Future US, Inc. 11 West 42nd Street, 15th Floor, They're also taking into account that the shaking can vary by about a factor of 10, "depending on where the earthquake started or how close you were to one of those strong patches on the fault," Wirth said. Moreover, places close to strong patches also experience strong shaking. Photos: Orcas Are Chowing Down on Great-White-Shark Organs, Rare wolf spider presumed extinct turns up on British military base, NASA finally makes contact with Voyager 2 after longest radio silence in 30 years, Massive great white shark Unama'ki spotted south of Miami. You will receive a verification email shortly. You know a major earthquake in Seattle is possible – there was that scary New Yorker article this year with the headline: "The Really Big One.". The findings also showed that when an earthquake ruptures farther inland, big cities such as Seattle and Portland experience stronger shaking. © If a magnitude 9.0 earthquake were to hit the Pacific Northwest, People in Seattle would fare much better if the epicenter struck beneath the tip of northwest Washington. 4.6-magnitude earthquake rattles residents awake near Seattle In the last seven days, shifting faults have triggered at least 128 aftershocks above magnitude 4.5. Seattle could escape catastrophic damage if the conditions are right. The research, which has yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal, was presented Oct. 24 at the 2017 Geological Society of America's annual meeting in Seattle. At Seattle the earthquake is described by the Portland Oregonian as "much heavier than any before known in this vicinity." "That kind of weak material tends to make the ground shake more," Wirth said. At the fault line, the offshore Juan de Fuca plate is moving toward, and eventually under, the plate holding the continent of North America. (There are other active faults in the Pacific Northwest, but the CSZ is capable of triggering the strongest earthquakes, according to the Washington State Department of Natural Resources. It's impossible to predict earthquakes with current technology, but the Pacific Northwest isn't due for a big earthquake quite yet. There was also consistently strong shaking in areas on top of sedimentary basins, which are basins filled with layers of different sediments, including the Seattle basin. "But when the epicenter is located pretty far offshore, the rupture travels inland, and all of that strong ground shaking piles up on its way to Seattle, to make the shaking in Seattle much stronger." "It's just important to be aware that we have this earthquake hazard in the Pacific Northwest," she said. Is this the funniest animal picture ever? The CSZ has a big earthquake about once every 500 years, and it's been about 300 years since the last big one, Wirth said. "But we don't know where these patches will be," Wirth told Live Science. Thank you for signing up to Live Science. 2020/11/05 13:57:06 PST "The average duration of strong shaking in Seattle is about 100 seconds, about four times as long as from the 2001 Nisqually earthquake," the magnitude 6.8 earthquake that rattled the Seattle region, study collaborator Art Frankel, a USGS seismologist and affiliate faculty member at the University of Washington, said in a statement. 131 km W of Gold Beach, Oregon 2020/11/05 21:57:06 UTC. "In running 50 [simulations], we were trying to show the full range of possibilities by varying all these parameters." [The 10 Biggest Earthquakes in History], The Pacific Northwest is in earthquake country largely because of the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), a 620-mile-long (1,000 kilometers) fault stretching from northern Vancouver Island, Canada, to Cape Mendocino, California, according to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network.
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